Gujing Liquor (000596): Scale effect appears and profits continue to be released

Gujing Liquor (000596): Scale effect appears and profits continue to be released

The profit in the third quarter of 19 exceeded market expectations, and the revenue was slightly lower than the market expectation.

3.0 billion, with a 21 increase.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 17.

4.2 billion yuan, an increase of 38.


Single third quarter revenue / profit growth of 11.

9% / 35.


The revenue was slightly lower than market expectations, mainly due to the lackluster market demand in the Mid-Autumn National Day and Anhui. The company actively controlled the distribution to keep the channel inventory healthy.

Earnings exceeded market expectations, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in sales expense ratio of 7 in the third quarter.


  Development Trend The company is moving from a single pursuit of growth in revenue volume to a gradual growth.

In response to changes in market demand and 南京桑拿网 channel inventory, the company actively controlled the pace of delivery to keep channel inventory at 1 most of the time.

The benign level of 2 months, the actual sales price is also stronger than the past few years.

  The product structure and regional structure of revenue are continuously optimized.

1) The company’s strategy of focusing on the next high-end is more resolute. When the ancient 8 price of 200 yuan gradually became popular, it began to launch products of ancient 16 and ancient 20 and above 300 yuan, and continued to improve the brand grade of ancient well, firmly grasping the Anhui province.The price of mainstream banquets is escalating, and we expect revenue at this price to grow 70% to 13 this year.

900 million yuan.

2) The secondary development of key markets outside the province pays more attention to the consolidation of the market foundation and the sustainability of growth. Local markets such as Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, etc. We expect revenue growth this year to reach 30% to 50%, and it is expected to continue.

  The effect of scale has begun to appear, and profits will still be released quickly in 2020.

The company’s selling expense ratio was 32 in 2016.

9% began to fall, but the decline was not obvious in 2017/18, mainly due to the company’s gradually changing advertising and promotion costs for sub-high-end prices and national promotion.

With the increase of the company’s scale and volume, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio will continue to decline due to the effect of scale, and profits will also benefit. We expect the profit growth rate in 2020 to remain 27.


  Earnings forecast and estimate Due to lower sales expenses, EPS3 is raised for 2019/20.

4% / 1.

2% to 4.


55 yuan, maintaining a target price of 140.

5 yuan, corresponding to 32 in 2019/20.

4x / 25.

3xP / E, current price corresponds to 2019/20 24.

3x / 19.

0xP / E, the target price has 33% upside compared to the current price, and maintains an outperform rating.

  Risks If Anhui’s economic growth is obvious, the next high-end growth may not meet expectations.

Luyang Energy Conservation (002088): Performance Exceeds Expectations, Operation Quality Continues to Improve

Luyang Energy Conservation (002088): Performance Exceeds Expectations, Operation Quality Continues to Improve
Key Investment Events: The company disclosed its 2018 annual report and reported a series of realized operating income.4.2 billion, an annual increase of 15.45%; net profit attributable to mothers3.07 million yuan, an increase of 43 in ten years.71%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother 3.04 billion, down 45 every year.18%, basically 0 benefits.85 yuan.The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 to every 10 shares for all shareholders.5 yuan (including tax).The total cash dividends accounted for 76 of the net profit attributable to the mother.59%, dividend yield 4.76%.  The company disclosed the 2019 first quarter report, which can realize operating income4.570,000 yuan, an annual increase of 48.24%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.72 ppm, an increase of 34 in ten years.51%; net profit after deduction is 0.710,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.75%, basic profit returns 0.20 yuan / share.  Opinion: The single-quarter growth rate continues to improve, and the business continues to improve.The company’s operating income in 2018 was 18.42 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.45%, net profit attributable to mother 3.07 million yuan, an increase of 43 in ten years.71%.In terms of quarters, the growth rate of operating income for Q1-Q4 in 2018 was 15 respectively.24%, 16.79%, 4.86%, 24.34%, of which the rapid growth in the fourth quarter was significantly improved in the first three quarters, mainly due to the company’s gradual resolution of its market share and rapid growth in market share.In Q1 19, the company’s revenue growth accelerated again, with an annual increase of 48.24%, the operating inflection point has been confirmed.  The continued high profits are due to the company’s falling costs and an increase in the proportion of high-end products, which are continuous.In 18 years, the company launched the “Double Lift and Double Drop” activity, and carried out multi-channel development of the market, centralized bidding, strict control of procurement of raw materials, combined with the increase in production capacity of various 北京夜网 products, fixed cost dilution, and continued improvement in comprehensive gross margin, reaching 42.1%, a substantial increase of 4 per year.6 points.  The impact of equity incentive fees and management expenses will increase, and the impact will be weakened in 2019-2021.The company’s 18-year expense ratio (including taxes and surcharges) 23.9%, an increase of 2 per year.5pct, at the middle level of history.  By item, sales, management expenses, R & D expenses and financial expense ratios reached 12 respectively.6%, 7.2%, 2.9% and -0.3%, change 0 each year.5 pcs, 3 pcs, 7 pct, -0.8 points and -0.6 points.Of which 18 years management costs1.32 ppm, an increase of 38 per year.31%, mainly due to the provision of 29.79 million yuan in equity incentive expenses (33 million, 15 million, and 6.57 million in 2019-2021, respectively). If the 南京夜网论坛 allocation of incentive expenses is not considered, the management expense ratio is 5.7%, reduced by 0 every year.3 points.  Profit forecast and investment advice: We adjust the profit forecast and expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent to be 3 in 2019-2021.8.9 billion, 5.10 billion and 6.32 trillion, the closing prices on May 21 correspond to PE of 2019-2021 respectively.1, 10.2 and 8.1. Key recommendations.  The company’s self-operated positions exceed 1%. Investors should pay attention to the risk warning: the expansion of new application areas is less than expected, the policy implementation is less than expected, and the industry’s competitive landscape has deteriorated

李洋洁案主犯获最重刑罚 李洋洁父母:感到欣慰

李洋洁案主犯获最重刑罚 李洋洁父母:感到欣慰
­  中新网8月5日电 据外媒报道,历时八个月的李洋洁案庭审4日落下帷幕。德绍地方法院一审判决男被告Sebastian F. 终身监禁、不得假释。李洋洁父母对这一判罚感到欣慰。­  此案中的女被告Xenia I. 也获刑5年零6个月。法院还判决两名被告向遇害者家属赔偿6万欧元的精神损失费。主审法官在宣判词中也陈述了理由。她指出,两名被告犯下的是“难以想像的罪行”,他们为了满足自己的性幻想,而留学生李洋洁却付出了生命的代价。­  当地时间6月5日下午,德国首都柏林约200名华人自发在柏林标志性建筑勃兰登堡门前举行集会,沉痛悼念不幸遇害的中国籍留学生李洋洁。一些德国友好人士也参加了此次悼念活动。 彭大伟 摄­  法庭认定,男被告Sebastian犯有强奸、谋杀两项罪名,且情节特别严重,因此他不能像一般的终身监禁囚犯一样在服刑15年后申请假释。对于女被告,法庭认可了心理鉴定师作出的“心智尚不成熟”之认定,因此按照教化为主、惩罚较轻的青年刑法来量刑;而且,法庭只认定女被告Xenia I. 犯有“性虐待罪”,因此仅获刑五年半。­  本案的两名被告,原先是一对情侣。2016年5月11日晚,女被告在街上谎称需要人帮忙搬箱子,将慢跑归来的李洋洁诱骗入住宅中,随后与男被告一同虐待、抢劫这名中国女学生。男被告此前曾多次要求女被告物色人选进行三人性行为,后者担心被分手,曾经就此问询过多名亲友,在被拒绝后遂直接在街上诱骗路人。李洋洁被虐待数小时后,身受重伤;而男被告Sebastian F. 最终则将她搬运到公寓楼的后院的一棵松柏树下遗弃。法医认为,李洋洁有可能在搬运之前死亡,也有可能是在搬运过程中死亡。法医鉴定显示,李洋洁全身多处骨折,进行了“数个小时的痛苦垂死挣扎”。­  此前,在对男被告的量刑建议上,检察官以及陪诉方律师都要求判处终身监禁、不得假释,辩方律师则建议判处其10年或12年监禁。而对于女被告,检察官要求判处8年监禁,陪诉方律师建议深圳SPA会所判处10~15年监禁,辩护律师认为应当判处3年徒刑。­  李洋洁父母:感到欣慰­  中新社记者 彭大伟 摄” />当地时间6月5日下午,德国首都柏林约200名华人自发在柏林标志性建筑勃兰登堡门前举行集会,沉痛悼念不幸遇害的中国籍留学生李洋洁。李洋洁生前就读于德国安哈尔特应用技术大学Dessau校区。中新社记者 彭大伟 摄­  在周五宣判后,李洋洁父母的律师派茨纳(Sven Peitzner)对德国之声说,他完全认同法庭对男被告Sebastian F. 的判决:“终身监禁、不得假释,这是德国刑法里的最重刑罚。但是,对于女被告Xenia I. 刑期,我有不同意见。我们认为,她不仅仅是强奸从犯,也参与了事后的掩盖罪行的行为。”­  派茨纳在4日下午还将一审判决结果告知了身在中国的李洋洁父母。他对德国之声透露,父母对法庭判处男被告终身监禁的决定表示赞赏,“他们感到欣慰,因为这个判罚可以令凶手不再能伤害其他人。”而对于女被告仅因“性虐待罪”获刑5年半,李洋洁的父母已经决定要提起上诉,“而我和谢夫纳(Tilmann Scheffner)也将继续担任李洋洁父母的代理律师。”­  男被告的辩护律师贝内维茨(Marco Bennewitz)则对德国之声表示,按照法律规定,控辩双方都可以在一周内提起上诉:“目前,我们还没有作出决定,将首先审视所有可行的法律手段。我估计,我们很有可能也会提起上诉。”­  主犯毫无悔意­  值得注意的是,男被告在全部庭审中都保持了沉默,只是在今年1月时,他当庭对一名警方证人咆哮“老兄你给我闭嘴!”而在本周二最后一场庭审结束前,他简短地开口表示:“我完全同意我的律师对我的辩护。”­  据旁听了每场庭审的《中德意志报》记者透露,男被告在庭审全程中,都未曾流露出任何悔罪、遗憾的神情。而在周五宣判时,他也面无表情。­  辩护律师贝内维茨则对德国之声说:“我能够确证他的面无表情。但是至于他在和我们辩护律师团队交谈时是否流露出悔罪之意——对不起,按照法律规定,我不能将当事人的私下谈话公开。” 责任编辑:曾少林

BTG Hotel (600258): Demand is still under construction due to macro impacts, results stabilized or boost expectations

BTG Hotel (600258): Demand is still under construction due to macro impacts, results stabilized or boost expectations
This report is a guide: in the first half of the year, macroeconomic fluctuations have continued to weaken operating data to build a bottom, and price adjustments have boosted the mid-to-high end. The company is working on product upgrades and mid-to-high-end layout to increase profitability. Investment Highlights: The performance is in line with expectations, and the holdings are increased.Considering that the company is affected by economic fluctuations and store closures, the EPS for 2019/20/21 is reduced to 0.95/1.11/1.32 (-0.01 / -0.01/0.00) yuan / share, given the industry average of 25xPE in 2020, maintaining a target price of 28.03 yuan. Brief description of performance: 2019H1 achieved revenue of 39.90 billion / -0北京桑拿洗浴保健.33%, net profit attributable to mother 3.6.7 billion / + 8.14%, deducted non-net profit attributable to mother 3.36 billion / + 6.twenty two%.Of which hotel business revenue was 37.400 million / -0.48%, such as 19H1 revenue 33.1.2 billion / -0.57%, net profit 3.55 billion / + 6.66%. Weak demand data is still bottoming out, and price adjustments have boosted mid- to high-end occupancy rates.① The overall RevPAR-1 in 19Q2.5%, about 19Q1 (-0.5%) continue to compete; same-store RevPAR-3.6%, accounting for 19Q1 (-3%). Demand is weak due to macro influences. The company is trying to ease the pressure on the occupancy rate by adjusting the price. ② The mid-to-high-end Q2 performed better than expected, and the direct / franchise occupancy rate was -2.7 / -0.8pct, the reduction ratio Q1 narrowed; ③ mid-range improvement and statistical caliber adjustment, related to the merger of Home Inn and BTG, but also related to the promotion of promotion, the mid-to-high end is still the best hotel industry to undertake high-end downgrade and low-end upgrade demandRace track. The speed of opening a store is the same as that of the same period last year, and the upgrade will improve profitability in the future.① Newly opened 159 stores in 19Q2 (75 in Q1), and 112 new hotels in the H1 mode in 2019, a slight increase from 105 in the same period last year; ② Product upgrades and mid-to-high end are strategic priorities, and 236 economic direct sales have been completed(33 of all direct sales.6%); ③ The company’s transformation efforts will be strengthened in 2019, with capital expenditures 4.6.3 billion (the same period last year 3.400 million), the above upgrade and brand promotion will bring stronger profitability and performance flexibility in the future. Risk reminder: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, store growth is slower than expected.

Marubeni Co., Ltd. (603983): Revenue performance accelerated month-on-month, steady growth in all channels

Marubeni Co., Ltd. (603983): Revenue performance accelerated month-on-month, steady growth in all channels

Summary: The company’s 2019 Q1-Q3 realized operating income12.

12 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

77%; net profit attributable to mother is 3.

590,000 yuan, an increase of 52 in ten years.


Among them, 2019Q3 revenue was 3.

97 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

28%; net profit attributable to mother is 1.

150 euros.


Revenue: 2019Q1-Q3 realized operating income12.

12 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.


Among them, 2019Q1 / Q2 / Q3 revenue was 3.



97 ppm, an increase of 8 each year.

88% / 14.

38% / 21.

28%, 青岛夜网 revenue increased faster than the previous quarter.

Profit side: The company’s gross profit margin has been steadily maintained at a relatively high level of 66% -70%.

The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 to Q3 2019 was 67.

95%, zero for one year.

25pct, of which the gross profit margin in 2019Q3 reached 66.

98%, an increase of 0 a year.

07 points.

The company strictly controls reasonable expenses, and the company’s period expense ratio (including research and development expenses) in Q1 to Q3 of 201936.

20%, minus 5 a year.

63pct; of which the selling expense ratio is 30.

18%, minus 4 a year.

82 points; management expense ratio 5.

17%, an increase of 0 a year.

26 points; financial expense ratio -1.

46%, minus one year.

01pct, mainly due to the increase in interest income from bank deposits in the current period.

Operating end: The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in Q1 to Q3 of 20192.

8.4 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

84%, mainly due to income growth and receipt of bank deposit interest, net cash flow from investment activities -8.0.5 billion.

The company has abundant monetary funds, and the monetary funds at the end of September 201918.

3.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17 from the end of 2018.

twenty four%.

Unseen points: TP companies collaborate to gradually establish a Tmall platform to accelerate growth; new brand Marubi Tokyo improves brand tone and layout is more sophisticated; eye cream / anti-aging track continues to grow.

We expect the company’s net profit to be 4 in 19-21.



120,000 yuan, corresponding to PE of 60/50 / 42X, maintaining the buying level.

Risk Warning: The effect of channel layout is not up to expectations, single-brand stores are developing less than expected, and market competition is fierce

Weir Shares (603501) 2018 Annual Report Review: Self-developed distribution goes hand in hand with M & A Howell achieves scarce leader

Weir Shares (603501) 2018 Annual Report Review: Self-developed distribution goes hand in hand with M & A Howell achieves scarce leader
Core View Weir’s existing IC design business and distribution business complement each other, and high-quality sales channels and customer resources provide penetration space for the growth of the design business.It is planned to acquire Howe Technology, the world’s third largest image sensor (CIS) manufacturer. If successful, it will become the leader of A-share scarcity.At present, the progress of the acquisition is steadily advancing, and the probability of success is breakthrough. Assuming that the acquisition is completed in 2019, the corresponding EPS forecast for 2019/2020/2021 is 1.11/1.杭州桑拿网57/1.92 yuan, with a target price of 59 at 54 times PE in 2019.94 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level. Performance growth was in line with expectations and continued to increase R & D investment.The company achieved total operating income of 39 in 2018.64 ppm, +64 a year.74%, mainly benefited from the continued strong demand of the semiconductor distribution business in 2018 and the growth in the background of rising prices; in 2018, net profit attributable to mothers / non-net profit deduction1.39/1.33 trillion, +1 a year.20% / + 9.94%.Excluding the impact of the company’s 2017 expansion of the stock equity incentive plan in 2018, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company’s non-recurring gains and losses is 3.46 trillion, ten years +117.64%.The company continued to expand R & D investment, and the company’s semiconductor design business R & D investment accounted for 9 of the corresponding business revenue in 2016-2018.58%, 14.04% and 15.24% (R & D investment in 2018 1.6.7 billion, previously +65.07%).Three fees for half a year +124.59%, of which management cost is +230 for ten years.55%, mainly due to the increase in sales scale and amortization of the company’s equity incentive plan expenses. Self-developed distribution goes hand in hand to bring business synergy into play.In 2018, the company’s IC design business revenue was 8.310,000 yuan, accounting for 20 of the main business income.99%, +15 per year.19%; distribution business revenue 31.2.8 billion, accounting for 79 of the main business income.01 %%, +86 throughout the year.73%.The company’s IC design business category is comprehensive, covering discrete devices (TVS, MOSFET, Schottky diodes), power management ICs, live satellite, radio frequency, MEMS microphones, etc. In 2018, a large number of domestic superior products in various fields were launched, and the business grew steadily. In terms of distribution business, the company mainly represents original manufacturers including Panasonic, Samsung, South Asia and other manufacturers, and has distribution channels all over the country’s mainstream mobile phone brand manufacturers and solution providers.In addition to revenue contribution, the company’s strong distribution system has outstanding advantages for the IC design business to grasp market demand trends in real time.Due to the company’s continuous investment in research and development, complementary main business and customer channel advantages, the fundamentals of the company’s core business are expected to continue to strengthen. The target area of the Haowei technology market is significant, helping the company to overtake in the corner.The company announced that OmniVision, which intends to acquire specimens, takes the CMOS image sensor business as its core and is the third largest CIS manufacturer in the world after Sony and Samsung.Howell excels in various application fields, the mobile phone CIS business (accounting for 61% of revenue) has the third market share (20% share), customers cover Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, etc .; security CIS (16% of revenue)No. 1 market share (56% share), customers cover Hikvision, Dahua; automotive CIS (13% revenue share), second share (29%), customers include BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Toyota, etc.The company quickly deployed CIS market opportunities through mergers and acquisitions.According to Yole, the CAGR of the global CIS market will remain at 10 from 2016 to 2022.About 50%, it will reach about 21 billion US dollars in 2022. If the company succeeds in mergers and acquisitions, it will create A-share scarcity, the world’s leading IC design target, and is optimistic about the future prospects. Risk factors: intensified competition in the CIS market; less-than-expected acquisition integration; lower-than-expected demand in the downstream market.

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Tracking Report: Large price gap between factory approval and future volume and price increase

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Tracking Report: Large price gap between factory approval and future volume and price increase
Quarterly results may be slightly lower than expected.The company announced that it achieved a total operating income of about 75 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of about 23% per year; a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 34 billion yuan, an increase of about 25%, and its 2018 performance was successfully concluded.In order to avoid the phenomenon of “rent-seeking”, in the second half of 2018, the company proactively cut off more than 100 dealers. The extra replacement and replacement of the direct management, through the increase of online and commercial direct supply to meet market demand, but in thisIn the process, the docking of direct supply channels has not been smooth and complete.This aspect is that the progress of the “new retail” online distribution model launched in 2016 was less than expected, mainly due to the elimination of online / offline arbitrage opportunities; replacing the direct supplier super channel requires the company’s own warehouse and logistics.The company also needs to prepare in advance.Due to the cut-off of 100-inch dealers, the supply of dealer channels decreased, and at the same time, the direct supply channels had not been fully followed up, leading to a reduction in the supply of Moutai in the entire market before the Spring Festival. Some regional markets suffered out-of-stock outbreaks and breakthrough prices.Growth (Feitian Maotai rose from 1600-1700 yuan / bottle to 1800-2000 yuan / bottle).At this stage, Moutai’s ex-factory price has not been adjusted (the price increase bonus at the end of 2017 has disappeared) and supply has decreased. Therefore, we expect that the growth rate of Moutai’s performance in Guizhou in the first quarter of 2019 may be slightly lower than expected. There is a large price gap between factory approvals, and there is still room for heavy volume 杭州桑拿网 and price increases in the future, and heavy volume may be given priority consideration.At present, the price of Feitian Maotai is 1700-1800 yuan / bottle, while the ex-factory price is 969 yuan / bottle, and the difference between the ex-factory price and the collective price is 700-800 yuan / bottle. The resulting difference replaces the channel profit.As an important tax enterprise in Guizhou Province, Guizhou Moutai, the government requires Guizhou Moutai to continuously improve performance and increase tax revenue is a high probability event. Therefore, due to the large difference in factory approval price, Moutai manufacturers may have volume and price increases in the future.However, based on the regulatory requirements of the NDRC on the control of product price requirements, Guizhou Moutai has a large number of base wines (the company announced that the production of Moutai base wines in 2018 will be about 4.97% growth rate, 16% per year).The company announced that the sales volume of Moutai in 2019 is 3.1 Initially, the base wine reserve is equivalent to 1 sold in 2019.6 times, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of more than 12% in the next 4 years from 2020-2023.Therefore, our analysis believes that the heavy-volume strategy adopted by Guizhou Moutai manufacturers to achieve performance growth should be the first consideration. On the basis of the heavy-volume, if the collective price can still stabilize, appropriate price increases may be considered.And if Moutai is heavy, and the cluster price goes down, it will have a certain impact on the performance of Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573 and below.The liquor industry as a whole will benefit from the opportunity for plate price increases and structural upgrades brought about by the Maotai colonial price, and it will be difficult to reproduce in the short term, and the liquor industry has begun to run into run-on growth. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Maintain the rating of “Based on the existing Feitian Moutai factory approval price gap, the future volume and price increase space, the company ‘s medium- and long-term performance sustainable growth without worry” rating.The company’s EPS for 2018/19/20 is forecast to be 27.48/32.16/36.69 yuan, corresponding to 28 in 2018/19/20 PE.28/24.17/21.19 times, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the macroeconomic downturn, the purchasing power of enterprises and residents decline, the company’s capacity release is not up to expectations, and food safety.

Hikvision (002415): Interim Report Exceeds Pessimistic Expectations, Growth in Second Half Tries to Continue to Rise

Hikvision (002415): Interim Report Exceeds Pessimistic Expectations, Growth in Second Half Tries to Continue to Rise

Core point of view: Revenue: Beyond the market’s pessimistic expectations, the growth target of more than 20% was achieved, and the company’s revenue increased by 14 in the first half of 2019.

6%, corresponding to a 19Q2 single-quarter half-year increase of 21.

5%, to achieve the goal of early guidance.

Due to the marginal changes in the 19Q2 macro operating environment, especially Sino-US trade frictions, the company’s 19Q2 revenue growth exceeded market expectations.

Considering the bottoming out of the domestic industry boom, combined with the company’s overall performance base last year, we believe that the company’s revenue growth will continue to pick up in the second half of 2019, and gradually realize the unlocking of distribution incentives, that is, a 合肥夜网 growth of more than 20%.

Gross profit margin: Affected by the reduction of interest rate growth rate, the gross profit margin of Q2 in the past five years was a new high of 19 and the gross profit margin of the company was 47.

4%, an increase of 3 per year.

4 pcts, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

6 pcts, a new high of nearly five years.

The main reasons are the reduction in growth rate, changes in income structure, cost control and exchange rate changes.

Looking ahead, we believe that thanks to the reduction in the replacement rate, the company’s gross profit margin conversion in 19Q2 and beyond will increase by one step in the previous period.

Net profit: Cost invariance dragged down the growth rate in the first half of the year but the pressure margin eased. Q3 outlook is optimistic that the company’s net profit will increase by 1 in the first half of 2019.

7%, which is significantly slower than the growth rate of income, is due to the cost inertia caused by the rapid expansion of early personnel.

Under the background of the company’s gradual easing of personnel expansion in the past year, cost pressure is expected to improve marginal mitigation, which has been reflected in the growth rate of three fees in Q2.

The company’s outlook for the first three quarters of net profit attributable to mothers increased by 0?
15%, the median interval corresponding to Q3 single quarter growth of 15%.

Expected 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.



15 yuan / share, a reasonable value of 34.

5 yuan / share in the short term, the company’s performance growth is expected to continue to pick up in the second half of the year, the medium and long-term perspective of the industry’s intelligent trend to open the company’s growth ceiling.

Expected company 19?
The 21-year EPS is 1.



15 yuan / share, with reference to the average income level of comparable companies (corresponding to 18X PE in 2019 performance), taking into account the company’s industry leader structure, stable operation and good cash flow, calculated at 25xPE corresponding to 2019 performance, the reasonable value is 34.

5 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks indicate that the industry’s prosperity is lower than expected; risks of Sino-U.S. Trade frictions; and increased risks of industry competition.

SAIC Group (600104) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations The Company Q2 Is About to Rally

SAIC Group (600104) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations The Company Q2 Is About to Rally

This report reads: The performance is in line with expectations, the company’s 2019 Q1 performance declines are narrower than Q4 2018, and sales and performance growth promote the rebound in Q2 2019.

The company is expected to become a 佛山桑拿网 pioneer of 5G cars in China.

Investment Highlights: Target Price 36.

57 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

The decline in the company’s performance has narrowed compared to Q4 2018, and sales are expected to rebound in Q2.

The company joined forces with Huawei and is expected to become a pioneer in the domestic 5G auto industry.

Maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019 to 2021 to 3.



67 yuan, maintaining a target price of 36.

57 yuan.

Q1 2019 results are in line with expectations.

The company’s Q1 2019 revenue was 2001.

910,000 yuan, a decrease of 16.

18%, net profit attributable to mother 82.

5.1 billion, a decrease of 15%, net of non-attributable net profit of 76.

3.0 billion, with a decrease of 13.

86%, performance is in line with expectations.

The company’s Q1 R & D expenses are 35.

2.1 billion yuan (same increase of 12.

8%), accounting for revenue 1.

76% (up 0.

45pct), R & D expenses are mainly used to break through key technologies such as new energy and intelligent networking.

The decline in the company’s performance has narrowed, and Q2 will usher in a rebound.

The company’s net profit after deducting non-attribution to mothers increased by 8 quarterly in 2018.


41% /-1.

5% /-21.

74 / -13.

86%, the decline in Q1 in 2019 is significantly narrower than Q4 in 2018.

The company’s sales volume increased by 10 quarters in 2018.

06% / 11.

78% /-1.

23% /-9.

65% /-15.

88%, the company’s sales growth has bottomed out, sales are expected to rebound in Q2.

Join forces with Huawei to become a pioneer in the 5G automotive industry.

The company has released the Roewe Vision-i concept car and announced that the world’s first 5G intelligent connected car will be mass-produced by 2020.The company will continue to work with Huawei to create 5G intelligent travel solutions and become a pioneer and leader in the 5G automotive industry.

Risk reminder: the risk of reduced growth in the automotive industry, uncertainty in overseas markets brought by the trade war

Yili shares (600887): repurchase shows significant confidence confidence company profits expected

Yili shares (600887): repurchase shows significant confidence confidence company profits expected

Event Overview Yili shares announced on the evening of April 8 that the company intends to repurchase the company’s A shares at a price of not more than 35 yuan / share, with the number 杭州夜网论坛 of repurchases not less than 1.

5.2 billion shares (accounting for 2 total shares).

5%) and no more than 3.

0.4 billion shares (accounting for 5 total shares).


The implementation period of the share repurchase is within 12 months from the date when the members of the board of directors adopt the repurchase program.

Incident review The high-priced repo shows the consensus and confidence, and fair incentives will effectively enhance the core subject position.

The repurchase price is much higher than the current Yili cashout (the closing price on April 8 was 28.

62 yuan / share), reflecting the firm confidence in participating in the long-term intrinsic value of the company.

After the return of President Pan, the combination of boxing lines is clear, high prices, and a high-growth stage will start a new round of restricted stocks. According to the announcement, the share repurchase will use all subsequent stock sources to implement decentralized incentives.The overall cohesion of the company ‘s equity structure, led by President Pan, will be further enhanced, and the corporate governance structure will be further optimized.

Behind the company’s confidence is the confidence in the entire dairy industry. The two strong logics are different, Mengniu will also benefit, and the duopoly layout appears.

This repurchase plan not only demonstrates Yili Alliance’s confidence in the company, but also clearly shows the company’s firm confidence in the future development of the dairy industry.

The logic of the two strong players is different. Yili lies in the stability of the income side. Mengniu lies in the repair of the net interest rate. Therefore, Mengniu will not be affected.

The general trend of 19 years has been achieved, and the profits of the two strong are expected to show.

Our long-term perspective is always the same. From a historical perspective, 18 years will be the year with the most concentration of all complication factors. In the future, the high probability concomitant variables will turn positive, and the two strong will have better estimates and EPS space.

We still maintain the views in the previous industry report “This is the worst and the best era-the history of the dairy industry’s double-headed history, what should be done in the future”: (1) the temperature in 19 years, but it will not significantly decrease;(2) The slight decrease in the contention of revenues means that there will be some lax room for the 19-year expense ratio; (3) It is expected that the net profit margins of the two strong companies are expected to increase in the second quarter of 1919.

The profit forecast assumes that the company follows the largest proportion of repurchase (5%) and begins to implement distribution incentives in 2020. We will adjust the equity and cash portion of the estimated model, and the 20-year management expense ratio will increase due to the increase in distribution incentive costsTherefore, we adjusted our profit forecast as: It is estimated that the total operating income for 2019-2021 will be 898 respectively.

200 million / 1002.

900 million / 108.

200 million, ten years +12.

9% / + 11.

7% / + 10.

5%, net profit attributable to mothers is 73.

100 million / 81.

200 million / 92.

900 million, +13 in ten years.

5% / + 11.

0% / + 14.


The corresponding EPS is 1.

20 yuan / 1.

34 yuan / 1.

53 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19/20/21 PE of 24X / 21X / 19X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: raw milk prices are too high