Gujing Liquor (000596): Scale effect appears and profits continue to be released
The profit in the third quarter of 19 exceeded market expectations, and the revenue was slightly lower than the market expectation.
3.0 billion, with a 21 increase.
3%, net profit attributable to mother 17.
4.2 billion yuan, an increase of 38.
Single third quarter revenue / profit growth of 11.
9% / 35.
The revenue was slightly lower than market expectations, mainly due to the lackluster market demand in the Mid-Autumn National Day and Anhui. The company actively controlled the distribution to keep the channel inventory healthy.
Earnings exceeded market expectations, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in sales expense ratio of 7 in the third quarter.
Development Trend The company is moving from a single pursuit of growth in revenue volume to a gradual growth.
In response to changes in market demand and 南京桑拿网 channel inventory, the company actively controlled the pace of delivery to keep channel inventory at 1 most of the time.
The benign level of 2 months, the actual sales price is also stronger than the past few years.
The product structure and regional structure of revenue are continuously optimized.
1) The company’s strategy of focusing on the next high-end is more resolute. When the ancient 8 price of 200 yuan gradually became popular, it began to launch products of ancient 16 and ancient 20 and above 300 yuan, and continued to improve the brand grade of ancient well, firmly grasping the Anhui province.The price of mainstream banquets is escalating, and we expect revenue at this price to grow 70% to 13 this year.
900 million yuan.
2) The secondary development of key markets outside the province pays more attention to the consolidation of the market foundation and the sustainability of growth. Local markets such as Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, etc. We expect revenue growth this year to reach 30% to 50%, and it is expected to continue.
The effect of scale has begun to appear, and profits will still be released quickly in 2020.
The company’s selling expense ratio was 32 in 2016.
9% began to fall, but the decline was not obvious in 2017/18, mainly due to the company’s gradually changing advertising and promotion costs for sub-high-end prices and national promotion.
With the increase of the company’s scale and volume, the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio will continue to decline due to the effect of scale, and profits will also benefit. We expect the profit growth rate in 2020 to remain 27.
Earnings forecast and estimate Due to lower sales expenses, EPS3 is raised for 2019/20.
4% / 1.
2% to 4.
55 yuan, maintaining a target price of 140.
5 yuan, corresponding to 32 in 2019/20.
4x / 25.
3xP / E, current price corresponds to 2019/20 24.
3x / 19.
0xP / E, the target price has 33% upside compared to the current price, and maintains an outperform rating.
Risks If Anhui’s economic growth is obvious, the next high-end growth may not meet expectations.