Zeping Ren commented on the March PMI data: the market bottomed out in the middle of the economic year
The bottom of the economic year, the market is extremely Thai: predictions are all verified-comment on March PMI data Zeping Macro Wenheng University Research Institute Ren Zeping Luo Zhiheng Sun Wanying event China’s official manufacturing PMI 50 in March.
5, the United Nations is below the line of honor for 3 consecutive months, expected 49.
6, the previous value is 49.
8, expected 54.
4, before the value of 54.
Interpretation 1. Is the market bottoming out in the middle of the economic year? Are predictions verified one by one? Are they handsome?
In the second half of 2018, we proposed that “the economy bottomed out in mid-2019”. Following M2 in January and the growth rate of social financing bottomed out, the PMI index also bottomed out in March.
In the second half of 2018, we proposed that “A lot of A shares are currently very cheap” and “the best investment opportunity is in China”.
At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that “the bond market, the stock market, the housing market, and the commodities will be improved one after another.” Since March, the housing market and commodities have also picked up.
Focusing on the analysis of macroeconomic indicators for 20 years, I deeply understand the nature of basic research and logical framework, and believe that independence and objectivity are the foundation of research.
In 2010, he participated in the research and proposed “growth and gear shifting”. In 2014, he predicted “5000 points is not a dream”, in 2015 he predicted “double the house price”, “economic L-shaped”, and in 2017 he predicted “new cycle”.
We are now reissuing the early view of “Poly Tailai-Macro Outlook for 2019”, everyone will wait and see: The main macro judgments in 2019: bottom in the economic year, and whether the capital market is extremely TailaiThe effect appears, the economy will reach the bottom in the middle of the year, stabilize in the second half of the year, from the previous low and then stabilize, the risk of economic stall eases.
The economy has its own laws of operation, focusing on the six major cycles of the world economy, finance, inventory, production capacity, real estate, and politics.
2) At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of M2 and social financing bottomed out, and the policy bottom (Q3 2018), the market bottom (Q1 2019), and the economic bottom (Mid 2019) will appear.
3) Monetary easing and cycle rotation, bond market, stock market, housing market, and commodities will turn for the better.
4) In the future, macro policies should not only prevent untimely hedging and insufficient efforts, but also prevent excessive efforts and re-enter the old path.
5) China’s “growth shift” has entered the “economic L-shaped” bottoming period, with three bottomings, the first in early 2016 and the second in mid-2019.
6) Three major challenges: the long-term and severe Sino-US trade war; the gradual approaching population crisis; mobilizing the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs to promote a new round of reform and opening up.
2. The manufacturing PMI rebounded more than expected. Production, new orders, purchases, and business expectations index rose significantly. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main contributors. Active destocking has come to an end. The bottom of the PMI in March is:) Manufacturing PMI is 50.
5%, an increase of 1 from last month.
Three single, ending the state of falling below the line of prosperity for 3 consecutive months, hitting a new high of 6 months, all sub-items rebounded, especially production, purchase volume and ex-factory price index rose significantly.
Overall, after the January-February PMI was consolidated, the March PMI rebound was stronger than in previous years, but mainly due to stronger production than in previous years, and new orders picked up a lot of moderation, meaning the supply side.
The average PMI for the first quarter was 49.
7%, lower than the average of 49 in the fourth quarter of last year.
9%, therefore, from a quarterly perspective, the economy is replacing inertia.
2) Domestic demand recovery is stronger than external demand. Domestic demand is mainly supported by infrastructure. It is corroborated by the rapid issuance of special debt, construction industry employment and new orders, but external demand is still lower than the line of prosperity due to the impact of world economic growth.
3) The revaluation margin of SME repurchase is the main contributor to the emerging rebound. The PMI of large enterprises has declined, supply-side reforms and upgrades, wide currency to wide credit, and tax and fee reduction policies have boosted SME confidence.
4) The average increase in operating expectations and purchasing volume index shows that enterprises are optimistic about the future, pragmatic, open, market-oriented reforms and measures to simplify administration and decentralization have gradually stimulated market vitality.
5) The rise in crude oil prices led to a rebound in the price index, deflationary pressures were suspended, and corporate profits were expected to improve.
6) The average inventory index of raw materials and finished products rose, but it was still lower than the Rongkuan line, and the rise of the finished product inventory index was significantly lower than the same period of 2016-2018, which means that the rate of destocking has decreased and active destocking has come to an endIt is expected to convert to passive destocking around the second quarter, which will weaken the drag on the economy and bottom out in the middle of the year.
3. Domestic and external demand are picking up, enterprises are expected to resume work after the holiday, and production growth is rising at the production end. The March PMI production index was 52.
7%, up 3 from last month.
Two averages, an increase of 2 from the January-February average.
5 averages, higher than 1 in the same period of 2016-2018.
5, 0.8 and 1 digits, mainly due to the recovery in domestic demand and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival.
On the demand side, the new order index is 51.
6%, a rebound from the previous month, a consolidation, two consecutive months of rebound, an increase of 1 from the January-February average.
5 digits, 2. from the same period in 2016-2018
4 and 1.
The five supplementary ratios returned to mild, indicating that demand is slowly recovering.
Mainly due to the early issuance of special bonds, counter-cyclical adjustments such as currency easing gradually come into play, and the infrastructure has clearly exerted strength.
From January to March, the net issuance of local government bonds (general bonds and special bonds) reached 1.
2 trillion, compared with 219.5 billion in the same period last year; of which, the net issuance in March was 477.3 billion, compared with 191 billion in the same period last year.
The index reflecting the economic momentum (new orders-finished goods inventory) rose by 0 from last month.
4 averages, rising for 3 consecutive months.
External demand has risen, but new export orders are still below the line of prosperity, and export exports are still grim.
New export order index 47.
1%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.
Nine averages, but still below the rise and dry line.
The global BDI index has plummeted by nearly 50% this year, and export growth is still severe.
First and foremost: First, the demand for export overdrafts was seized last year.
Second, the world economy peaked and fell.
US manufacturing PMI was 52 in March.
5%, 0 from last month.
5 digits; Eurozone and Japanese manufacturing PMIs crossed the line for the second consecutive month, 47, respectively.
6% and 48.
9%, compared with the previous month’s sample 1.
The 7-digit figure is the same; among them, the European economic locomotive German manufacturing PMI is 44.
7%, the lowest since September 2012.
The BDI index has plummeted by nearly 50% this year. The BDI index stabilized but remained at a low level in March, an indicator of international trade activity.
4. The rise in crude oil prices and post-holiday resumption drive the price index to rise, deflationary pressures have been suspended, and corporate profit expectations are expected to improve for three months.The pressure is on hold and corporate earnings expectations are improving.
The purchase price index and the ex-factory price index of main raw materials were 53.
5% and 51.
4%, up 1 from the previous month.
6 and 2.
Nine digits, at least a five-month high, the ex-factory price index has returned to above the Rong dry line.
Brent crude oil increased by about 3 in March from the previous month.
0%, falling by 2 every year.
2%, narrowed by 0 earlier in February.
1 polycarbonate; rebar, thermal coal increased by 2.
3% and 4.
From the perspective of industry, the price indexes of petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are both located at 56.
Higher range above 0%.
5. Supply revisions and counter-cyclical adjustments boost corporate confidence. The business expectation index and purchase volume have risen sharply. Taking into account demand, price recovery and inventory de-allocation, the initiative to destock gradually ends. Supply revisions and counter-cyclical adjustments boost corporate confidence.Wide money to wide credit, financial strength, etc. have promoted a sharp rise in business operating expectations and purchases, and SMEs have improved significantly, becoming the main force behind the rise in PMI in three months.
The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2018 and the two sessions in 2019 released signals of strong market-oriented reforms and simplified administration and decentralization. Supply-side reforms paid more attention to marketization and rule of law. They pointed out some misunderstandings and practices of last year and corrected them.In order to “consolidate, enhance, enhance, and unblock”, that is, to consolidate the results of the previous “three to one, one to reduce and one to compensate” supply-side reforms, enhance micro-vibrancy, improve the level of the industrial chain, and smooth the circulation of the national economy, especially the benign nature of the financial and real economy.cycle.
In February, the financial supply-side structural reform proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping should adjust the market structure, vigorously develop multi-level capital markets, and increase the proportion of direct financing; deepen the reform of financial institutions such as banks and promote the reform of mixed ownership in the banking industry; and improve the financial product system.Develop differentiated financial products to better serve the real economy.
The production and operation expectation index was 56.
8%, an increase of 0 from last month.
Six averages rose to a seven-month high; the purchase volume index was 51.
2%, up 2 from last month.
Nine advantages reflect that companies are more optimistic about the future.
Originating from: The suspension of the external Sino-U.S. Trade war, internal continuous strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments, and continued development of fiscal and monetary policies.
Monetary policy changed from wide money to wide credit, and social finance and M2 bottomed out.
The 2 trillion yuan tax reduction burden has stimulated market vitality and improved business expectations.
The prosperity of SMEs has rebounded significantly. The rise in new orders is mainly concentrated in SMEs, and the prosperity of large enterprises has drifted.
Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.
1%, down from last month.
The four averages continue to be above the critical point.
Small and medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.
9% and 49.
3%, a significant 夜来香体验网 increase of 3 respectively from the previous month.
0 and 4.
Among them, the new orders index of small and medium-sized enterprises showed a clear upward trend, and large enterprises overlapped slightly.
The index of new orders for large enterprises in March was 52.
5%, down 2 from last month.
In the five tiers, the SME new orders index was 51.
2% and 49.
0%, up 4 from the previous month.
6 and 6.
Two fines eased the pressure on SMEs.
The raw material and finished product inventory indexes were 48.
4% and 47.
0%, up 2 from last month.
1 and 0.
Six averages, but still below the rise and dry line.
The increase in the inventory of finished products was significantly lower than in 2016-2018, and the increase in the raw material inventory index was mainly due to the increase in 重庆耍耍网 purchases.
Inventory decarburization, active destocking is coming to an end.
The current demand and price rebound have led to improved expectations and increased purchases. When business operators confirm that demand recovery is sustainable, they will continue to increase production and procurement, and destocking will enter the end and transition to restocking. At this time, the economy bottoms out and stabilizes.Expected to occur in the 2-3 quarter.
6. From the perspective of the industry, high-tech manufacturing continues to grow at a high rate of new momentum, and the consumer goods industry is operating steadily.
The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs were 52.
2% and 51.
4%, both significantly higher than the overall manufacturing industry.
Among them, agricultural and sideline food processing and pharmaceutical manufacturing PMI are all located at 53.
0% and above are relatively high boom intervals.
7. The prosperity of the construction industry rebounded, and new orders hit a new 15-month high, reflecting the continued development of infrastructure. Non-manufacturing business activities rebounded. The high prosperity of the construction industry, business activities, employment, and average price of new orders increased, reflecting the continued development of infrastructureforce.
The non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.
8%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.
Five averages, which rose by 0 in the same period last year.
2 units; new order index 52.
5%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.
Eight averages, which rose 0 during the same period last year.
Among them, affected by the resumption of work after the holiday, the boom of the construction industry has returned to the high boom range.
The construction business activity index for March was 61.
7%, up 2 from last month.
5 averages, 3 higher than the same period last year.
2 units; new order index is 57.
9%, a significant increase of 5 from last month.
Nine averages, 2 higher than the same period last year.
The employment of construction enterprises has increased, and the employment index is 54.
1%, an increase of 0 from last month.
Nine single ones indicate that the construction of production in the construction industry is accelerating through the start of climate change and warming after the festival.
From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 57.
9%, up 5 from last month.
Nine digits, a 15-month high, were incorporated into infrastructure construction projects to accelerate the development, and the industry development is expected to continue to improve.