Oupai Home (603833): Home Leads Move towards Giants

Oupai Home (603833): Home Leads Move towards Giants

Event 1: Oupai Household released the 2018 annual report, and the company’s preliminary 2018 revenue reached 115.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.

53%; net profit attributable to mother 15.

7 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

9%; net profit after deduction is 15

0 million yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.

3%; yield 3.

8 yuan.

Among them, Q4 single-quarter revenue reached 33.

1 billion, an increase of 18 in ten years.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

72 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

5%; advance payment 0.

88 ppm, a ten-year increase of 17.

3%; operating cash flow 20.

180,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.


Event 2: The company announced its 2019 performance targets. In 2019, the company expects its operating income to increase by about 15% and the corresponding revenue to be about 132.

4 ‰; total operating cost is expected to increase by about 15%; net profit is expected to increase by about 20%, corresponding to a net profit of about 18.

800 million.

The overall performance was in line with expectations, the development of wooden door bathrooms was dazzling, and the effect of category fusion appeared.

In 2018, the company added 521 dealers and 770 new stores in all categories.

1) European-style cabinets are rapidly advancing the construction of emerging channels and preliminary breakthroughs in the performance of package orders.

5 billion.

Cabinet business achieved revenue 57.

65 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

7%; Q4 revenue was $ 1.4 billion, an increase of 4% year-on-year.

As of the end of 2018, the company has 1,618 cabinet dealers (+62), 2,150 stores (+126), and the number of A, B, and C city stores accounted for 14%, 29%, and 57% respectively;Preliminary cabinet sales 63.

20,000 sets, an annual increase of 6.


Opposite front-end orders 4.

6 ‰, a year-on-year increase of 32%; the cumulative number of stores is 935 (+96), and the business model of the Opole brand has gradually matured, and a relatively complete set of terminal operation models have been initially explored.

2) The wardrobe business is developing steadily.

Wardrobe business achieved revenue 41.

48 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

9%; Q4 revenue was US $ 13 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.


By the end of 2018, the company had 973 (+130) wardrobe dealers (independent wardrobes), 1872 (+240) storefronts, and the number of A, B, and C city stores accounted for 15% and 29%, 56%; sales of 1.36 million sets of custom-made wardrobes, an increase of 17 per year.7%.

In response to the market environment, the European-style wardrobe rushes to buy orders with special packages to increase the single value of the space, expand the profit margin with clothing and wood integration, and continue to innovate and optimize.

3) The wooden door business has grown rapidly, and it is expected to continue steadily in 19 years.

Wooden door business achieved revenue 4.

75 ppm, a 47-year increase of 47.

7%, of which e-commerce channels increased 159% per year.

Wooden door Q4 achieved 200 million revenue in a single quarter, an annual growth of 41%.

As of the end of 2018, the company has 808 wooden door dealers (+125), 825 storefronts (+191) and 45 wooden doors for sale.

20 thousand yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.


2018 is the key year for the transition and upgrade of Opponi wooden doors.

OPNIM has carried out six major reforms to the market environment and its shortcomings, effectively driving growth.

4) The bathroom business continued to be sorted out and progressed steadily.

The business achieved revenue in 20184.

530,000 yuan, an increase of 49 in ten years.


Sanitary ware Q4 single quarter revenue reached 200 million, an increase of 53% year-on-year, a significant increase over Q3 (+ 23%) in 2018.

As of the end of 2018, the company has 488 bathroom dealers (+120), 559 storefronts (+116), and sells bathrooms 28.

09 million sets, an annual increase of 31.

55%, progress has been made in channel combing, and it has entered a stage of healthy growth.

The price increase and scale effect are obvious, and the gross profit margin of wardrobes and bathrooms is rising.

2018 preliminary company achieved sales gross margin of 38.

38% (+3.

86 points.

), Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 single-quarter gross margins were 33.

91% / 39.

38% / 38.

83% / 39.


Among them, the gross profit margin of the cabinet is 39.

81% (+3.

11 points), the gross profit margin of the wardrobe is 41.

97% (+7.

24pct), bathroom gross margin 36.

16% (+7.

21pct), the gross profit margin of the wooden door 13.

58% (-2.


In terms of profitability, the company achieved a net profit margin in 2018 of 13.
66% (+0.
28 points.

), The net profit margin in the fourth quarter of a single quarter was 11.

22% (-1.

44 points.

The overall period expense ratio for 2018 was 16.

66% (-2.

30pct); Among them, the selling expense ratio is 10.

23% (+0.

48pct), management expense ratio 6.

71% (-2.

47pct), financial expense ratio -0.

28% (-0.


The increase in scale effect and internal control efficiency drove the company’s gross profit margin upward.

Promote the model of large home furnishings and take the lead in channel transformation.

With the continuous advancement of domestic hardcover and package business, the impact of passenger flow in traditional retail channels is obvious. Among them, home improvement companies are the primary entrance, which hinders 杭州桑拿 the diversion of passenger flow.

In order to lay out assembly channels and expand customer resources, the company took the lead in channel conversion in the industry, and began piloting the promotion of the assembly home furnishing business in 2018.

Fully expand brand building and promote the “10 + 1” terminal business model.

The company realized the construction of a series of brands owned by Oupai Household, fully expanded the “10 + 1” terminal business model, through a wide range of distribution stores, unified and neat design and decoration and well-trained experts to display the company’s overall image and improve “”Europai”, “European Li”, “European” brand awareness and reputation.

Investment advice: We predict that the company will achieve operating income of 134 in 2019-2021.

800 million, 160.

300 million, 186.

USD 300 million, an annual increase of 17% / 19% / 16%, to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company18.

900 million, 22.

800 million, 26.

80,000 yuan, an annual increase of 20% / 20.

9% / 17.

7%, corresponding to an EPS of 4.

49, 5.

43 and 6.

39 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The risk of real estate business is reduced, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the intensified competition in the industry, leading to the profit risk caused by the decline in the industry’s average profit rate.

Huaxin Cement (600801): Q4 performance was slightly lower than expected mainly due to price changes and rising costs

Huaxin Cement (600801): Q4 performance was slightly lower than expected mainly due to price changes and rising costs

Matters: The company issued a 2019 performance forecast. The company’s 2019 performance is expected to increase from 910 million to 14.28 million yuan, an annual increase of 18% to 28%.

Comment: Q4 performance has a high probability of negative growth in 2019. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent is about 60.


100 million US dollars, an increase of 18% to 28% a year, of which Q4 net profit is about 12.


900 million, compared with 17 in the same period of 18 years.

7 ppm, Q4 net profit exceeds about 28% at most, the best case is basically the same as last year, overall expectations.

The lower-than-expected results or mainly due to lower cement prices in Hubei and Southwest China than in the same period last year and rising costs. From the perspective of volume and price, the company’s cement and clinker sales in 2019 will increase by about 9%.From the perspective of various regions, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, Chongqing and Tibet, the regions where the company’s main production capacity is located, have gradually reduced their output by about 7 in November.

9%, 1.

3%, 8.

0%, 2.

9%, 18.

7%; Hubei Q4 crop growth improved and dropped (down by 1.

4 units).

From the perspective of price, we count the five provinces Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, Chongqing and Tibet where the company’s main production capacity is located. The average price of Q4 cement from the same period last year was -14, 14, 6, -11, -2 yuan./ Ton, we calculated according to the change in the price of cement in each region and the company’s production capacity in 5 regions. The average price of cement and clinker in Q4 company decreased by about 4 yuan per ton. Considering that Q4 sales still increased by about 7%, pure priceEarnings per share of 4 yuan / ton is not enough to cause negative growth. We judge that Q4 costs may rise rapidly, which may cause Q4 performance to fall short of expectations.

Aggregate and concrete business continued to grow rapidly.

The reported company’s aggregate sales volume increased by 21% each year, and concrete sales volume increased by 19%. Aggregate and concrete continued to maintain rapid growth.

High price repurchase is conducive to sustainability, long-term performance doubling target opens the space company recently announced that it intends to exceed 32.

The price of 03 yuan repurchases 1-1 in the secondary market.

25 trillion shares are mainly used for subsequent employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives.

We believe that the company announced the repurchase plan at the current point in time and actively implemented the repurchase, mainly based on the recognition of the company’s value and confidence in the long-term development prospects.

In an interview with the media on New Year’s Day, Li Yeqing, the company’s president, said that the new year’s new dream will double the performance of the new 成都桑拿网 2019 by 2025. According to this opportunity, the company’s compliance growth rate in the next 5 years will reach 15%.

Maintaining a “Buy” rating, we expect the company to have operating income of 311 from 2019 to 2021.

600 million, 331.

9 ppm, 347.

300 million, an increase of 13 each year.

5%, 6.

5%, 4.

6%; net profit attributable to mothers is 63.

200 million, 66.

700 million, 70.

100 million, an increase of 22 each year.

0%, 5.

5%, 5.


The EPS is expected to be 3 in 2019-2021.

01 yuan / share, 3.

18 yuan / share and 3.34 yuan / share, corresponding PE is 9/8 / 8x. We judge that the cement demand forecast for 2020 will remain stable. Q4 single-quarter profit fluctuations will not affect the company’s value judgment. There is more room for development of new businesses such as aggregate.Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest fluctuations in cement prices, changes in cement demand, and changes in macro policy directions.

Fire Communications (600498) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: First Quarterly Reports Grow Faster and 5G Cycle Performance Turns Better

Fire Communications (600498) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: First Quarterly Reports Grow Faster and 5G Cycle Performance Turns Better

The company’s performance is basically in line with expectations. Considering the reduction in the collection price of fiber optic cables, we expect that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 10 in 2019-2020.


6.2 billion (previous value was 11.


8.7 billion) and forecast its net profit attributable to mothers to be 16 in 2021.

04 million, corresponding to PE32 / 27/17 times.

Considering that the 32x estimate in 2019 has fully reflected the company’s performance growth rate and the expectations contained in the above 5G, we maintain the “overweight” rating.

The company successively released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report, in which the revenue for the first quarter of 2018 and 2019 was 242 respectively.

3.5 billion and 48.

81 ‰, increasing by 15 each year.

10% and 14.

9%; net profit attributable to mothers is 8.

$ 4.4 billion and 1.

67 trillion, with an annual increase of 2.

29% and 19.

71%, performance basically in line with expectations.

The main business grew steadily, and the main players on the 5G track.

Although not affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade friction last year, the company’s operations are stable, and the three major sectors have recorded rapid positive growth, of which communications systems have increased by 13.

5%, fiber optic cable increased by 18.

4%, the data network increased by 19%, of which the beacon space in the data network grew faster, reaching 26%.

2019 is the beginning of 5G. As one of the access manufacturers of 5G bearer networks, the company strives to usher in a higher growth rate than last year.

Increase investment in research and development and bet on 5G circuits.

The company expanded research and development expenses, of which the research and development expenses in 2018 management expenses were 22.

9.6 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

81%, higher than the level of revenue.

At the same time, capitalized development expenditures2.

4.8 billion, an increase of 28 in ten years.


The Q1 R & D expense ratio reached 11 in 2019.

9%, reflecting the company’s determination for 5G investment.

As 5G is about to enter commercial use, the company’s R & D investment will become more and more capitalized, indicating that the degree of productization will continue to increase.

In addition, due to the increase in pre-tax deductions for R & D investment, the increase in investment in R & D will also benefit significantly.

The establishment of Xinke’s solid-mobile integration will benefit the company from synergies.

In 2018, Wuhan Academy of Posts and Telecommunications Science and Technology Research Institute merged to form China Information Technology.

China Xinke has both the optical communications leader represented by Fiberhome Communications, and wireless communications equipment manufacturers represented by Datang Mobile and Wuhan Hongxin.

With the advent of 5G, the competitive advantage of manufacturers who merge fixed and mobile networks will become more apparent, and the company is expected to benefit from synergies.

Risk factors: 5G progress is less than expected, optical communications progress is less than expected, Beastar ‘s growth rate is less than expected. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company ‘s performance is basically in line with expectations. Considering the decline in the collection price of fiber optic cables, we expect the company to return to zero in 2019-2020The parent net profit is 10.

59/12.6.2 billion 南京夜网 (previous value was 11.


8.7 billion) and forecast its net profit attributable to mothers to be 16 in 2021.

04 million, corresponding PE is 32/27/17 times.

Considering that the 32x estimate in 2019 has fully reflected the company’s current performance growth rate and the expectations contained in the above 5G, we maintain the “overweight” rating of the company.

Fanwei Network (603039) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance Meets Expectations R & D Sales Expansion Continues High-speed Growth

Fanwei Network (603039) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance Meets Expectations R & D Sales Expansion Continues High-speed Growth

The company is a leading company in the domestic OA field and has the largest market share. It is recommended to continue to pay attention 西安耍耍网 to the development of the company’s three major product solutions, e-cology & e-weaver, e-office and eteams, and cooperation with Tencent’s WeChat.

We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-20201.


92 yuan, plus forecast for 2021.

42 yuan, corresponding to the net profit of the mother 1.



4.8 billion.

We maintain the “overweight” rating.

Performance was in line with expectations, and revenue grew rapidly.

The company released its 2018 annual report, which can achieve operating income10.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 42 in ten years.

51%, achieving net profit attributable to mothers1.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

64%, the net profit of non-returned mothers was reduced to 0.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 42 in ten years.


The factors that keep the company’s revenue fast are mainly the reorganization of the company’s continuous optimization of products and solutions, and the introduction of new products; instead, the company strengthened its brand promotion and marketing service system construction.

In 2019, the company will continue to improve its products and strengthen application promotion. We expect that the company’s revenue will continue to grow rapidly in 2019.

OA software has a low penetration rate, and mobility, intelligence and cloudification have brought about a rise in concentration, leading companies can.

At present, the penetration rate of the overall collaborative office management software is about 15-20%, and the scale of the OA market will exceed 10 billion US dollars, and there is huge room for improvement in the future.

As the industry leader, the company is committed to achieving standardized products and a nationwide service network to increase market share.

In addition, the company released a new generation of “intelligent, platform-based, full-process electronic” OA product-e-cology9, released in September 2018.

0 Benefiting from the trend of office mobility, intelligence, and cloudification, cloud-based teams cooperate with corporate WeChat to create a mobile office cloud ecosystem, and the future is promising.

The gross profit margin continued to remain high, and research and development, sales and other expenses all maintained rapid growth.

As a national advanced company, the company always regards technological innovation as the driving force for the development of the company and continuously increases its independent research and development efforts. Therefore, the company has maintained a high level of gross profit margin and high performance in research and development and sales.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 95.

80%, a slight increase before 2017.

The company’s research and development expenses increased by 39%, mainly due to the company’s continuous increase in product development efforts incurred by the labor costs of research and development personnel. In the report, the company added 40 new functions to the module under construction, optimized and enhanced 53 functions, etc .; sales expenses increased by 42.

91%, mainly due to the increase in project implementation costs corresponding to the increase in revenue from the authorized business operation center and the increase in product marketing efforts.

We expect that in the future, the company will increase the research and development of new products and the construction of marketing service teams, and the research and development and sales will continue to grow.

Risk factors: The market promotion of OA products of large enterprises is less than expected, and the market promotion of cloud products is slow.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

The company is a leader in the domestic OA field, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the development of the company’s three major product solutions, e-cology & e-weaver, e-office and eteams, and the cooperation with Tencent’s WeChat.

We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-20201.


92 yuan, plus forecast for 2021.

42 yuan, corresponding to the net profit of the mother 1.51/1.


4.8 billion.

We maintain the “overweight” rating.

Wanneng Power (000543): Strategic cooperation investment landing power asset structure will be optimized

Wanneng Power (000543): Strategic cooperation investment landing power asset structure will be optimized
Event: Recently, the company issued a foreign investment announcement, jointly invested with State Grid Xinyuan Company, State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd., and Shenneng Co., Ltd. to establish Anhui Tongcheng Pumped Storage Co., Ltd. to build and operate Anhui Tongcheng Pumped StoragePower station.According to the proposed investment agreement signed, the company will hold 20% of the project’s share ratio and will need to occupy capital 29,024 based on the share ratio.60,000 yuan. Opinion: The completion of the strategic cooperative investment project and the participation in the hydropower storage generator assets will further optimize the company’s power asset structure.In September this year, the company and the State Grid Xinyuan Power Grid Company’s “Letter of Intent” reached a preliminary intention to jointly build the Anhui Tongcheng Pumped Storage Power Generation Project; in early December, the project company was formally established., Shenneng shares, Wanneng shares are formed according to 35%, 25%, 20%, 20% share ratio, the company needs to absorb capital2.900 million.The construction scale of Tongcheng pumped-storage generating units is 1.28 million kilowatts. Four 320,000 kilowatt reversible pump-turbine generating units are installed and connected to the Anhui power grid’s 500,000 kV voltage level system. The project investment is about 74.9 trillion, construction is planned to start at the end of 2019. After completion, it will undertake tasks such as peak shaving, valley filling, frequency modulation and emergency backup for the Anhui power system.The company’s investment in hydropower storage assets has a positive effect on the optimization of the power structure. At present, the company’s power assets are mainly thermal power, which converts new energy sources and increases in external calls. The peak pressure of the Anhui power grid has increased, and pumped storage has increased.It can become an indispensable peak-shaving resource. This cooperation will have a positive meaning for the company to optimize the asset structure. It is expected that the smooth commissioning of the power plant will promote the company’s power generation efficiency and investment income. The high-quality assets of the major shareholder Shenwan Energy have been injected. After the merger, the investment income is considerable and the profitability has steadily improved.In June of this year, the company completed the acquisition of 49% equity of Shenwan Energy, of which 24% was a private equity acquisition (issue 4).7.6 billion shares at an issue price of 4.83 yuan to raise funds 23.01 million), 25% for cash acquisition (23.9.7 billion).Shenwan Energy has been included in the company’s investment income since June. After the completion of the transaction, the company’s equity installed capacity increased by 142.10,000 kilowatts, with a current installed capacity of 683 in the company’s current equity period.Calculated based on 40,000 kilowatts, an increase of 20.80%.Shenwan Energy is the company’s major shareholder in 2012, committed to inject assets, backed by the major shareholder Shenhua Group, obviously has a cost advantage in the procurement of raw materials and coal, and has good operating indicators in recent years, and has profitability.Since its merger, Shenwan Energy has calculated its investment income from June to September.710,000 yuan, considerable income.After the completion of the asset injection, the company’s installed capacity can be increased and its profitability enhanced, and the company’s profit level will be further improved. Downward profits of coal prices have increased, and expected results can maintain high growth. “Highly recommended” grade.After the first quarter of this year, the 重庆耍耍网 price of thermal coal continued to fall, and the thermal coal index was once from 618 in March.49 dropped to 541 in December.89.The decline in raw material costs has significantly improved the company’s performance, and the company achieved operating income of 116 in the first three quarters.4.5 billion, net profit attributable to mother 6.9 billion, a 130-year increase.5%.It is expected that the trend of lowering coal power in the fourth quarter will continue, and the revenue growth of power business will be higher, and the coal and heating business will remain stable, so that the performance can maintain high growth.The company’s 19-21 performance is expected to be 9.95, 12.33, 13.9.6 billion, corresponding to 19 years PE is estimated to be 10.6 times, maintaining the level of “Careful Recommendation-A”. Risk reminder: The increase in the proportion of market-based transactions makes electricity price risk, the market allocation risk of thermal power planned volume, the coal price risk, the risk of raw coal consumption control, and the overall systemic risk.

Yutong Bus (600066) 2019 Interim Report Review: Price and Volume Bistability Performance Meets Expectations

Yutong Bus (600066) 2019 Interim Report Review: Price and Volume Bistability Performance Meets Expectations

Interim profit +10.

8%, the performance is in line with expectations Yutong Bus 2019H1 achieved revenue of 125.

0.5 billion, +4.

06% (Q1 + 3.

85%), net profit attributable to mother 6.

8.3 billion, +10.

78% (+5 in the first quarter.

4%), net of non-attributed net profit 5.

220,000 yuan, +0.

66% (Q1-9.

4%), sales 2.

540,000 vehicles (+2.


Single Q2 achieved revenue of 76.

670,000 yuan, +4.

20%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

7.2 billion, +15.

71%, net of non-attributed net profit2.

750,000 yuan, +11.


On the whole, Q2’s revenue and profit growth accelerated, and gross profit margin decreased and improved. The first half performance was in line with expectations.

Gross profit margin improved, high R & D investment continued in 2019H1 Yutong gross profit margin22.

94%, an increase of 1 each year.

52pct, net interest rate 5.

46%, an increase of 0 every year.

33 points.

The improvement of gross profit margin is primarily due to the company’s product upgrades (the growth of tourist buses and the increase in the proportion of high-profile products).

H1 Yutong buses accounted for 18% of the four fares in 2019.

04%, an increase of 2 per year.

13pct, of which selling expenses cost 8.

23%, a decline of 0 per year.

18 points, administrative expenses 2.

64%, which is basically the same for one year.

84%, an increase of 1 each year.

06pct (mainly due to the decrease in exchange income); R & D expense rate 6.

33%, an increase of 1 each year.

17pct, R & D promotes continuous growth.

Yutong’s price and volume are stable, and the average bicycle price and profit in the first half of the year have improved significantly in the 2019H1 domestic market.90%; large and medium-sized passenger cars in the export market increased by more than 6.

57%; 29,575 new energy buses over 6 meters, extended by 3 every year.


Under the pressure of the industry, Yutong achieved sales growth against the trend, and overall sales increased by +2.

6%, the new energy flat for ten years.

At the same time as sales improved, under strict price management and product upgrades, the average price and profit of 杭州夜网论坛 Yutong’s bicycles both improved, and the average price of bicycles in H1 2019 was 49.

180,000 yuan, increasing by 0 every year.

70,000 yuan; 2019H1 bicycle profit 2.

690,000 yuan, an increase of 1900 yuan a year, divided into quarters, 2019Q1 average price of 45 bikes.

740,000 yuan, a year reduction of 1.

06 million; 2019Q1 bicycle profit 2.

0.94 million yuan, a decrease of 2,000 yuan a year; the average bicycle price in the second quarter of 2019 was 51.

630,000 yuan, an increase of 20,000 yuan a year, bicycle profit in 2019Q22.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 3300 yuan each year.

Risk warning: The sales of new energy buses exceeded expectations in the second half of the year, and the decline in upstream costs was lower than expected.

Investment suggestion: Wait for dawn and maintain BUY rating.

  At 深圳桑拿网 present, Yutong has confirmed the “three horizontal and five vertical” R & D layout, and developed three plug-in, pure electric, and fuel cell power systems. In the future, it is optimistic about mid- to high-end product upgrades, overseas exports, RVs and fuel cell buses.

Taking into account that the results of the interim report are in line with expectations, we maintain our profit forecast. We expect the EPS in 19/20/21 to be 1 respectively.



44 yuan, corresponding to 12 for PE.



2x, maintaining the one-year target estimate range of 18.


77 yuan, currently expected 13.

3 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Anhuaneng (601699): Proposed acquisition of group assets to improve performance

Anhuaneng (601699): Proposed acquisition of group assets to improve performance

Event: On July 29, 2019, the company issued an announcement stating that it intends to purchase the Shanxi Shaanxi held by the company’s controlling shareholder Shanxi Lu’an Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Lu’an Group”) in cash.An Mining Group Cilinshan 杭州桑拿网 Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Clinshan Coal Industry”) 100% equity.

Comment on the proposed acquisition of group assets, expansion of production capacity and increased production: Cilinshan Coal Industry includes three mines: Cilinshan Coal Mine Headquarters (60 tons / year), Cilinshan Xiadianjing (180 tons / year), and Licun, which was newly commissioned at the end of last yearMine (300 tons / year), with a total capacity of 540 tons / year, accounting for the equity capacity of listed companies.


Among them, Licun Mine obtained prospecting rights in February 2004 and completed geological exploration in July 2005. The mine’s first-stage production capacity is 300 tons / year, the recoverable reserves are 9,800 tons, and the service life is 33 years.

The mine mainly mines No. 3 coal seam. The 杭州桑拿网 coal types are low ash, extra low sulfur, high quality lean coal and anthracite.

After the completion of Licun Mine, Cilinshan Coal Industry is expected to contribute an increase of 540 grain production, accounting for 13 of the company’s total output in 2018.


As the net assets of Cilinshan Coal Industry are only 6.

6.9 billion, so we expect the equity purchase price to be relatively high, corresponding to PE is very cheap.

Contribution to the theoretical acquisition of Cilinshan Coal Industry10.

85% profit increase: According to the announcement, in the first half of 2019, Cilinshan Coal Industry achieved net profit1.

3.6 billion, net profit after deduction1.

US $ 4.4 billion, annualized profit estimates for the first half of the year, net profit reachability after partial deductions2.

880,000 yuan, the theoretically feasible company deducts non-net profit 10%.


It is expected that after the full production of Li Cun in the second half of the year, the profit will be better than the first half, and the actual profit contribution will be.

Cilinshan Coal Industry and the company are expected to achieve a win-win situation: According to the announcement, as of June 30, 2019, the assets and liabilities of Cilinshan Coal Industry replaced 93.

58%, high debt ratio, and Lu’an Huaneng has abundant cash on the books. As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company’s books had a total of 16.2 billion US dollars in currency. After the completion of the acquisition, it will help Cilinshan Coal reduce its debt and reduceLater, the profitability of Cilinshan Coal will be more prominent.

The company’s main business has strong profitability and significant cash flow improvement: the company’s clean coal ratio continues to increase, and it is expected that the company’s output will increase slightly in 2020.

The price of coking coal will continue to be strong. The company’s injection of coal has the advantages of low sulfur and low ash, which is in line with the trend of environmental protection. The price will be stronger in the future.

At the same time, the company’s blended coal sales are mainly based on the long-term association, and the price is very stable.

Since 2016, the company’s operating net cash flow has continued to improve, and the increase in cash flow has even been significantly better than the increase in profit. In 2018, the company’s operating net cash flow was 93.

4 trillion, the highest level since listing.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company’s books had a total of 16.2 billion US dollars of monetary funds and an interest resistance budget of 18.3 billion US dollars during the same period. It is expected that cash will cover interest resistance by the middle of the year.

The asset impairment caused by the merger and consolidation of minerals has been basically dealt with, and the company will enter the market lightly, and its performance is expected to be fully released.

Investment suggestion: It is expected that net profit will be realized in 2019-2021.

81 ppm / 33.

9.5 billion / 35.

630,000 yuan (not considering equity acquisition for the time being).

The company’s performance burden has been digested, and the company’s future performance elasticity release can be expected.

We believe that at the current estimated level, the company has some room for repair.

Maintain BUY-A investment rating with 6-month target price of 11.

71 yuan, corresponding to 11 times PE.

Risk reminders: 1) the macroeconomic downturn, 2) the risk of falling prices in downstream industries; 3) there is still uncertainty in this equity acquisition.

Zeping Ren commented on 3-month PMI data

Zeping Ren commented on the March PMI data: the market bottomed out in the middle of the economic year

The bottom of the economic year, the market is extremely Thai: predictions are all verified-comment on March PMI data Zeping Macro Wenheng University Research Institute Ren Zeping Luo Zhiheng Sun Wanying event China’s official manufacturing PMI 50 in March.

5, the United Nations is below the line of honor for 3 consecutive months, expected 49.

6, the previous value is 49.


Non-manufacturing PMI54.

8, expected 54.

4, before the value of 54.


  Interpretation 1. Is the market bottoming out in the middle of the economic year? Are predictions verified one by one? Are they handsome?

  In the second half of 2018, we proposed that “the economy bottomed out in mid-2019”. Following M2 in January and the growth rate of social financing bottomed out, the PMI index also bottomed out in March.

  In the second half of 2018, we proposed that “A lot of A shares are currently very cheap” and “the best investment opportunity is in China”.

  At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that “the bond market, the stock market, the housing market, and the commodities will be improved one after another.” Since March, the housing market and commodities have also picked up.

  Focusing on the analysis of macroeconomic indicators for 20 years, I deeply understand the nature of basic research and logical framework, and believe that independence and objectivity are the foundation of research.

In 2010, he participated in the research and proposed “growth and gear shifting”. In 2014, he predicted “5000 points is not a dream”, in 2015 he predicted “double the house price”, “economic L-shaped”, and in 2017 he predicted “new cycle”.

  We are now reissuing the early view of “Poly Tailai-Macro Outlook for 2019”, everyone will wait and see: The main macro judgments in 2019: bottom in the economic year, and whether the capital market is extremely TailaiThe effect appears, the economy will reach the bottom in the middle of the year, stabilize in the second half of the year, from the previous low and then stabilize, the risk of economic stall eases.

  The economy has its own laws of operation, focusing on the six major cycles of the world economy, finance, inventory, production capacity, real estate, and politics.

  2) At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of M2 and social financing bottomed out, and the policy bottom (Q3 2018), the market bottom (Q1 2019), and the economic bottom (Mid 2019) will appear.

  3) Monetary easing and cycle rotation, bond market, stock market, housing market, and commodities will turn for the better.

  4) In the future, macro policies should not only prevent untimely hedging and insufficient efforts, but also prevent excessive efforts and re-enter the old path.

  5) China’s “growth shift” has entered the “economic L-shaped” bottoming period, with three bottomings, the first in early 2016 and the second in mid-2019.

  6) Three major challenges: the long-term and severe Sino-US trade war; the gradual approaching population crisis; mobilizing the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs to promote a new round of reform and opening up.

  2. The manufacturing PMI rebounded more than expected. Production, new orders, purchases, and business expectations index rose significantly. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main contributors. Active destocking has come to an end. The bottom of the PMI in March is:) Manufacturing PMI is 50.

5%, an increase of 1 from last month.

Three single, ending the state of falling below the line of prosperity for 3 consecutive months, hitting a new high of 6 months, all sub-items rebounded, especially production, purchase volume and ex-factory price index rose significantly.

Overall, after the January-February PMI was consolidated, the March PMI rebound was stronger than in previous years, but mainly due to stronger production than in previous years, and new orders picked up a lot of moderation, meaning the supply side.
The average PMI for the first quarter was 49.

7%, lower than the average of 49 in the fourth quarter of last year.

9%, therefore, from a quarterly perspective, the economy is replacing inertia.

  2) Domestic demand recovery is stronger than external demand. Domestic demand is mainly supported by infrastructure. It is corroborated by the rapid issuance of special debt, construction industry employment and new orders, but external demand is still lower than the line of prosperity due to the impact of world economic growth.

  3) The revaluation margin of SME repurchase is the main contributor to the emerging rebound. The PMI of large enterprises has declined, supply-side reforms and upgrades, wide currency to wide credit, and tax and fee reduction policies have boosted SME confidence.

  4) The average increase in operating expectations and purchasing volume index shows that enterprises are optimistic about the future, pragmatic, open, market-oriented reforms and measures to simplify administration and decentralization have gradually stimulated market vitality.

  5) The rise in crude oil prices led to a rebound in the price index, deflationary pressures were suspended, and corporate profits were expected to improve.

  6) The average inventory index of raw materials and finished products rose, but it was still lower than the Rongkuan line, and the rise of the finished product inventory index was significantly lower than the same period of 2016-2018, which means that the rate of destocking has decreased and active destocking has come to an endIt is expected to convert to passive destocking around the second quarter, which will weaken the drag on the economy and bottom out in the middle of the year.

  3. Domestic and external demand are picking up, enterprises are expected to resume work after the holiday, and production growth is rising at the production end. The March PMI production index was 52.

7%, up 3 from last month.

Two averages, an increase of 2 from the January-February average.

5 averages, higher than 1 in the same period of 2016-2018.

5, 0.8 and 1 digits, mainly due to the recovery in domestic demand and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival.

  On the demand side, the new order index is 51.

6%, a rebound from the previous month, a consolidation, two consecutive months of rebound, an increase of 1 from the January-February average.

5 digits, 2. from the same period in 2016-2018

4, 0.

4 and 1.

The five supplementary ratios returned to mild, indicating that demand is slowly recovering.

Mainly due to the early issuance of special bonds, counter-cyclical adjustments such as currency easing gradually come into play, and the infrastructure has clearly exerted strength.

From January to March, the net issuance of local government bonds (general bonds and special bonds) reached 1.

2 trillion, compared with 219.5 billion in the same period last year; of which, the net issuance in March was 477.3 billion, compared with 191 billion in the same period last year.

The index reflecting the economic momentum (new orders-finished goods inventory) rose by 0 from last month.

4 averages, rising for 3 consecutive months.

  External demand has risen, but new export orders are still below the line of prosperity, and export exports are still grim.

New export order index 47.

1%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

Nine averages, but still below the rise and dry line.

The global BDI index has plummeted by nearly 50% this year, and export growth is still severe.

First and foremost: First, the demand for export overdrafts was seized last year.

Second, the world economy peaked and fell.

US manufacturing PMI was 52 in March.

5%, 0 from last month.

5 digits; Eurozone and Japanese manufacturing PMIs crossed the line for the second consecutive month, 47, respectively.

6% and 48.

9%, compared with the previous month’s sample 1.

The 7-digit figure is the same; among them, the European economic locomotive German manufacturing PMI is 44.

7%, the lowest since September 2012.

The BDI index has plummeted by nearly 50% this year. The BDI index stabilized but remained at a low level in March, an indicator of international trade activity.

  4. The rise in crude oil prices and post-holiday resumption drive the price index to rise, deflationary pressures have been suspended, and corporate profit expectations are expected to improve for three months.The pressure is on hold and corporate earnings expectations are improving.
The purchase price index and the ex-factory price index of main raw materials were 53.

5% and 51.

4%, up 1 from the previous month.

6 and 2.

Nine digits, at least a five-month high, the ex-factory price index has returned to above the Rong dry line.

Brent crude oil increased by about 3 in March from the previous month.

0%, falling by 2 every year.

2%, narrowed by 0 earlier in February.

1 polycarbonate; rebar, thermal coal increased by 2.

3% and 4.

From the perspective of industry, the price indexes of petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are both located at 56.
Higher range above 0%.

  5. Supply revisions and counter-cyclical adjustments boost corporate confidence. The business expectation index and purchase volume have risen sharply. Taking into account demand, price recovery and inventory de-allocation, the initiative to destock gradually ends. Supply revisions and counter-cyclical adjustments boost corporate confidence.Wide money to wide credit, financial strength, etc. have promoted a sharp rise in business operating expectations and purchases, and SMEs have improved significantly, becoming the main force behind the rise in PMI in three months.

The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2018 and the two sessions in 2019 released signals of strong market-oriented reforms and simplified administration and decentralization. Supply-side reforms paid more attention to marketization and rule of law. They pointed out some misunderstandings and practices of last year and corrected them.In order to “consolidate, enhance, enhance, and unblock”, that is, to consolidate the results of the previous “three to one, one to reduce and one to compensate” supply-side reforms, enhance micro-vibrancy, improve the level of the industrial chain, and smooth the circulation of the national economy, especially the benign nature of the financial and real economy.cycle.

In February, the financial supply-side structural reform proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping should adjust the market structure, vigorously develop multi-level capital markets, and increase the proportion of direct financing; deepen the reform of financial institutions such as banks and promote the reform of mixed ownership in the banking industry; and improve the financial product system.Develop differentiated financial products to better serve the real economy.

  The production and operation expectation index was 56.

8%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Six averages rose to a seven-month high; the purchase volume index was 51.

2%, up 2 from last month.

Nine advantages reflect that companies are more optimistic about the future.

Originating from: The suspension of the external Sino-U.S. Trade war, internal continuous strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments, and continued development of fiscal and monetary policies.

Monetary policy changed from wide money to wide credit, and social finance and M2 bottomed out.

The 2 trillion yuan tax reduction burden has stimulated market vitality and improved business expectations.

  The prosperity of SMEs has rebounded significantly. The rise in new orders is mainly concentrated in SMEs, and the prosperity of large enterprises has drifted.

Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.

1%, down from last month.

The four averages continue to be above the critical point.

Small and medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.

9% and 49.

3%, a significant 夜来香体验网 increase of 3 respectively from the previous month.

0 and 4.

0 averages.

Among them, the new orders index of small and medium-sized enterprises showed a clear upward trend, and large enterprises overlapped slightly.

The index of new orders for large enterprises in March was 52.

5%, down 2 from last month.

In the five tiers, the SME new orders index was 51.

2% and 49.

0%, up 4 from the previous month.

6 and 6.

Two fines eased the pressure on SMEs.

  The raw material and finished product inventory indexes were 48.

4% and 47.

0%, up 2 from last month.

1 and 0.

Six averages, but still below the rise and dry line.

The increase in the inventory of finished products was significantly lower than in 2016-2018, and the increase in the raw material inventory index was mainly due to the increase in 重庆耍耍网 purchases.

Inventory decarburization, active destocking is coming to an end.

  The current demand and price rebound have led to improved expectations and increased purchases. When business operators confirm that demand recovery is sustainable, they will continue to increase production and procurement, and destocking will enter the end and transition to restocking. At this time, the economy bottoms out and stabilizes.Expected to occur in the 2-3 quarter.

  6. From the perspective of the industry, high-tech manufacturing continues to grow at a high rate of new momentum, and the consumer goods industry is operating steadily.

The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs were 52.
0%, 51.
2% and 51.

4%, both significantly higher than the overall manufacturing industry.

Among them, agricultural and sideline food processing and pharmaceutical manufacturing PMI are all located at 53.

0% and above are relatively high boom intervals.

  7. The prosperity of the construction industry rebounded, and new orders hit a new 15-month high, reflecting the continued development of infrastructure. Non-manufacturing business activities rebounded. The high prosperity of the construction industry, business activities, employment, and average price of new orders increased, reflecting the continued development of infrastructureforce.
The non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.

8%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

Five averages, which rose by 0 in the same period last year.

2 units; new order index 52.

5%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

Eight averages, which rose 0 during the same period last year.

6 averages.

Among them, affected by the resumption of work after the holiday, the boom of the construction industry has returned to the high boom range.

The construction business activity index for March was 61.

7%, up 2 from last month.

5 averages, 3 higher than the same period last year.

2 units; new order index is 57.

9%, a significant increase of 5 from last month.

Nine averages, 2 higher than the same period last year.

5 averages.

The employment of construction enterprises has increased, and the employment index is 54.

1%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Nine single ones indicate that the construction of production in the construction industry is accelerating through the start of climate change and warming after the festival.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 57.

9%, up 5 from last month.

Nine digits, a 15-month high, were incorporated into infrastructure construction projects to accelerate the development, and the industry development is expected to continue to improve.

Depth-Company-Kelley Ying (002821): Gross profit margin of cash flow continued to improve in the third quarter

Depth * Company * Kelley Ying (002821): The gross profit rate of cash flow continued to improve in the third quarter

The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the report merged, and the company achieved total operating income of 17.

4.2 billion (+44.

61%), net profit attributable to mother 3.

6.7 billion (+40.

48%), net of non-attributed net profit3.

3.8 billion (+38.


Operating net cash flow 3.

51 ‰ (+ 28.

54), of which Q3 single season 1.

9.6 billion (+ 1,554%).

Performance is in line with expectations.

At the same time, an annual notice is issued, and net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 5 in 2019.


0 million yuan (+ 25%?
40%), net of non-attributed net profit4.


1.6 billion (+ 30%?

Initially maintained a high growth trend.

As a domestic CDMO leader, the company comprehensively lays out all links in the industrial chain, and the number and scale of orders are constantly expanding. Commercial orders at home and abroad will provide incremental increases.

At the same time, based on the development and production of advantageous small molecule processes, the layout of large molecules is accelerated. The first phase of the Jinshan R & D building is being used at the end.

We are optimistic that the company will move towards a global leader, maintain the buy level, and continue to recommend it.

The main points of the support level maintained high growth in the third quarter, and the operating net cash flow increased significantly: Q3 single-quarter revenue and profit maintained rapid growth since this year (revenue +45.

18%, net profit attributable to mother +31.


Operating net cash flow in a single quarter1.

9.6 billion, a continuous increase compared to the previous two quarters and the same period last year. Initially, the export orders were confirmed at the end of June this year, and the return amount in the third quarter conflicted.

Advance receipts were 42.9 million yuan at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 66% from the end of the second quarter, and the order revenue volume is expected to continue to expand.

The single quarter gross margin improved, the production of raw materials and technology reduced costs, and the positive impact of the US dollar exchange rate: Q3 gross margin 45.

20%, an increase of nearly one merger from the second quarter.

Affected by many factors since the early days, the gross profit of the first two quarters was short-term.

In the third quarter, due to the improvement of the company’s self-production of raw materials and the use of newly transferred capacity, and the positive effects of exchange rates and tax rebates, the gross profit margin began to improve.

Subsequently, the ratio of self-supply continued to increase, new businesses gradually matured, and there was room for further improvement in gross profit margin.

Continued R & D expenditures, new business and expansion of production capacity and expansion of future incremental bases: The management expense ratio in the third quarter was significantly reduced due to reduced distribution amortization (-1).

78pp), the sales expense ratio and R & D expense ratio remained basically stable.

The company’s Jinshan Macromolecule R & D Center is expected to expand operations during the year, bringing new business development space; clinical CRO business is growing steadily.

The gradual launch of new production capacity and the continuous increase of maximum production capacity are expected to ensure the company’s additional growth space in the future.
It is estimated that the company, as a domestic leader in CDMO, continuously explores the market for domestic innovative drugs and further increases the overseas penetration rate. At the same time, it focuses on emerging businesses such as macromolecules 北京夜网 and CROs.The expansion of production capacity and the expansion of the industrial chain are driving rapid growth.

Regardless of the fixed increase and dilution, we estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 19-21 will be 5 respectively.


2.7 billion, with EPS of 2.



44 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 48.



5 times, maintain BUY rating and continue to recommend.

The main risks faced by ratings are the risks of downstream customers’ R & D failure or sales exceeding expectations; risks of exchange rate changes; risks of international trade friction; environmental protection and production safety risks.

Haohua Technology (600378): Interim report performance in line with expectations

Haohua Technology (600378): Interim report performance in line with expectations

Event: The company released its 2019 interim results, and the report is expected to achieve total operating revenue22.

79 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

73%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 2.

5.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.


Key investment points The company is a rare technological leader in the chemical industry. The interim report results are in line with expectations: Tianke Co., the company ‘s predecessor, focused on pressure swing adsorption gas separation technology and complete sets of equipment, catalyst products, carbon-chemical and engineering design.In December 2018, the company acquired 11 research institutes affiliated to the parent company China Haohua, reorganized the target to replace high-quality chemical technology companies, and transformed scientific research power. After the reorganization, the company added fluororesin, fluororubber, nitrogen trifluoride, and rubber sealing products.Aviation tires, special coatings and other products have officially become the capital operation platform of the technology sector of China National Chemical Corporation.

According to the number of reports, the company has achieved a steady increase in operating income and net profit attributable to mothers, and multi-business growth has increased to varying degrees.

The competitiveness of mid-to-high-end PTFE products is prominent.

Although the price of products declined due to the escalation of Sino-U.S. Trade frictions and internal competition in the first half of the year, mid-to-high-end polytetrafluoroethylene products are relatively firm in the process of assisting import substitution. The company’s Chenguangyuan is the second largest fluorine company in China.Resin companies have their competitive advantages highlighted.

The shift in semiconductor + flat panel display capacity has driven demand for nitrogen trifluoride products.

As the production capacity of the semiconductor and flat panel display industries gradually shifts inward, the high-generation line production capacity continues to increase, and the demand for special gases such as nitrogen trifluoride has increased significantly.

The report summarizes that the 2,000-ton / year nitrogen trifluoride project carried out by the company in cooperation with South Korea Dasung Industrial Gas Co., Ltd. (DIG) has reached full production and maintained a high level of utilization. The company’s use of technological advantages and mature sales channels has become the leading domestic threeThe supplier of nitrogen fluoride is expected to become a core growth business segment in the future.

The 杭州桑拿 non-tire rubber business is developing rapidly.

Northwest Institute, a subsidiary of the company, is a major supplier of large-scale aircraft aerospace sealing profiles and sealing tape products in China, and is one of the most influential suppliers of aerospace sealing profiles in China.

With the development of downstream aviation, aerospace, construction machinery, rail transportation, and other areas, the overall demand for non-tire rubber products market has steadily increased, especially in emerging industries such as large aircraft and high-speed rail. The demand for C919 passenger aircraft has grown rapidly.The number of confirmed orders and intentional orders continues to increase.

Profit forecast and investment grade: We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 44.

5.4 billion, 48.

60 ppm and 54.

5.3 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 5.

8 billion, 6.

3.9 billion yuan and 7.

02 ppm, EPS is 0.

69 yuan, 0.

76 yuan and 0.

84 yuan, the current expected corresponding PE is 18X, 16X, 15X.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of military dependence, uncertainty in the integrated management of subsidiaries, and increased industry competition leading to product price declines.